Predicting Early Bulbar Decline in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Speech Subsystem Approach

PURPOSE To develop a predictive model of speech loss in persons with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) based on measures of respiratory, phonatory, articulatory, and resonatory functions that were selected using a data-mining approach. METHOD Physiologic speech subsystem (respiratory, phonatory, articulatory, and resonatory) functions were evaluated longitudinally in 66 individuals with ALS using multiple instrumentation approaches including acoustic, aerodynamic, nasometeric, and kinematic. The instrumental measures of the subsystem functions were subjected to a principal component analysis and linear mixed effects models to derive a set of comprehensive predictors of bulbar dysfunction. These subsystem predictors were subjected to a Kaplan-Meier analysis to estimate the time until speech loss. RESULTS For a majority of participants, speech subsystem decline was detectible prior to declines in speech intelligibility and speaking rate. Among all subsystems, the articulatory and phonatory predictors were most responsive to early bulbar deterioration; and the resonatory and respiratory predictors were as responsive to bulbar decline as was speaking rate. CONCLUSIONS The articulatory and phonatory predictors are sensitive indicators of early bulbar decline due to ALS, which has implications for predicting disease onset and progression and clinical management of ALS.